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India’s e-retail sector is on a growth tear, with the market projected to reach a staggering $170–$190 billion in gross merchandise value (GMV) by 2030—three times its current size of $60 billion. Contributing to this explosive expansion is the rise of quick commerce (Q-commerce), which is redefining how Indian consumers shop online by delivering convenience, speed, and a wider assortment across cities and categories.
Quick Commerce: India’s Breakout Growth Story
While multiple digital-first retail models are gaining momentum, quick commerce has taken center stage as India’s most exciting e-retail disruptor. Accounting for around 10% of total e-retail GMV and a dominant 70–75% of e-grocery GMV in 2024, Q-commerce has already grown into a $6–7 billion segment—doubling year after year.
“India has bucked global trends and unlocked a profitable model to scale quick commerce,” said Manan Bhasin, Partner at Bain & Company. “Basket values are up 40%, gross margins have improved by 3–4 percentage points, and logistics costs have fallen by 30% in mature catchments. This shows that the model is both scalable and sustainable.”
Q-commerce’s success is being fueled by aggressive category expansion (beyond grocery to include lifestyle, electronics, and beauty), wider city coverage, and increasing brand partnerships. The model is expected to maintain a >40% annual growth rate until 2030, making it the fastest-growing component of India’s digital retail landscape.
Blinkit: Leading India’s Q-Commerce Revolution
At the forefront of this transformation is Blinkit, Zomato’s quick commerce arm, which has witnessed exceptional growth in the past year. The platform’s gross order value (GOV) surged 120% year-on-year and 27% quarter-on-quarter in Q3FY25. Having already crossed the 1,000-store mark ahead of schedule, Blinkit now aims to double that number to 2,000 stores by December 2025, a full year ahead of its original target.
Its rapid rollout strategy is backed by massive investments in infrastructure. In just the last two quarters, Blinkit added 368 new dark stores and expanded its warehouse capacity by 1.3 million sq. ft., which now makes up over 30% of its warehousing network. Customer adoption is also on the rise. Monthly transacting customers (MTC) climbed to 10.6 million in Q3FY25, driven by sharp digital marketing efforts and strategic geographic expansion. While these moves have increased quarterly losses by INR 95 crore, the company views them as strategic investments to fortify its market leadership.
“Competition Will Drive Quality”: Blinkit CEO
India’s Q-commerce space is now a battleground with players like Zepto, Swiggy Instamart, BigBasket’s BBNow, and Flipkart pushing for market share. But Blinkit CEO Albinder Dhindsa remains confident that strong execution and customer loyalty will be the differentiators.
“To us, the biggest impact of intensifying competition has been the acceleration in customer awareness and adoption of quick commerce,” Dhindsa said. “We’ve seen this in food delivery as well—heightened competition leads to higher industry investments, but ultimately, it disproportionately benefits those with the best execution.”
He added that Blinkit has not witnessed any attrition among core users, reinforcing its retention strength. Although rising competition has temporarily slowed margin expansion, Dhindsa stressed that the company’s fundamentals remain robust.
Flipkart & Retail Media: Building a Data-Driven Q-Commerce Ecosystem
As the Q-commerce model scales, platforms like Flipkart are doubling down on retail media to support brands and sellers in reaching digital consumers. “Retail media in India accounts for only 20–25% of total digital ad spend, compared to 25–30% in the US and 55–60% in China. This presents significant headroom for growth,” said Vijay Iyer, VP & GM, Flipkart Ads.
Retail media is becoming a key growth lever—offering personalized visibility, performance optimization, and deeper customer engagement. This will become increasingly crucial as players diversify product assortments and battle for attention in a crowded quick commerce marketplace.
The Road Ahead
According to the newly released “How India Shops Online 2025” report by Bain & Company and Flipkart, India has already emerged as the second-largest e-retail shopper base globally, boasting over 270 million online shoppers in 2024. And this wave of digital consumption is increasingly being driven by consumers from Tier-2, Tier-3, and beyond. In fact, 60% of new online shoppers since 2020 have come from smaller towns, and nearly 45% of all orders in 2023 originated there—highlighting the democratization of digital retail.
With India’s per capita GDP projected to cross $3,500–$4,000 by 2030, discretionary spending is expected to rise, further fueling Q-commerce and other e-retail formats. High-frequency categories like grocery, lifestyle, and general merchandise will drive nearly 70% of the next wave of growth, while new-age models like trend-first commerce and hyper-value commerce will help expand consumer reach.
Quick commerce, once seen as a niche convenience, is now at the heart of India’s retail future. With hyperlocal fulfilment networks, faster delivery promises, and a strong appetite for innovation, India is not only scaling Q-commerce - it’s rewriting its global playbook.
